A mere 60 days ago when the Villa attacker stood on the Stadium of Light pitch, appearing bewildered as the Villa manager scolded him over failing to anticipate a through-ball. At that point, as Villa endured a six-game winless run, doubts remained if his performances were a sign or the source for the team's broader struggles.
“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”
This weekend, in contrast, the touchline reaction was entirely decidedly more positive. As the England international drilled in his second strike to reclaim Villa's lead, the Spanish tactician discarded his winter coat, opened his arms and bellowed. The Birmingham club marched on to a 10th successive win and after failing to win their opening six matches, find themselves a mere three points behind table-toppers Arsenal.
Is This Team Serious Title Contenders?
It remains a rather hard question to address. History, a general sense of this institution, argues against it. Moreover, their performances haven't been completely commanding this season, despite the fact the victories have accumulated.
As per Opta, twice all season has the team posted an xG significantly higher than the other team. For a side which has strung together a ten-match winning streak, the Villans appear curiously susceptible – however at the moment the margins are falling their way.
The Winning Formula
The current approach appears to be to exchange chances with an opponent and wait for their talisman to save the day with some crisp finishes. This was the case away to Leeds, it happened in London, and again versus the Red Devils.
The initial strike stemmed from an exquisite effort, bent just inside the upright from the corner of the box. For his second acted as a slightly less clean iteration of the opener as he seized on a pass from Watkins.
“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”
How Long Can This Continue?
Logic says not. During the latest victory, Manchester United registered more shots and more efforts on goal. The team has won each of their last eight by the narrowest of margins. They have allowed goals in all but one of those matches.
Regression to the mean could be the most significant challenge the club will encounter as the season progresses. Rogers, surely, cannot keep on thrashing the football into the top corner forever.
A Case for Belief
Perhaps there is a different scenario in which, rather than outcomes regressing to match displays, performances begin to trend towards results. Vital cogs may yet find their top level.
- The main striker could start finding the net regularly.
- The attacking talent might become the force he was in Germany.
- The defensive duo are due to return from injury, fortifying a periodically leaky backline.
Maybe within that lies the potential for a sustained push, yet it seems unlikely can continue to depend solely on one man.
Relishing the Unlikely
However, nobody expected this. It seemed improbable the team would sit in the top three for the holidays. And certainly back in October, few could imagine the young forward now would be at the forefront of a title charge and appearing as an essential Three Lions star.
This remarkable period should be enjoyed precisely because it feels so unlikely. When Rogers faced the North End after the match conducting the cheers, it was clear to be thoroughly enjoying it. Which he fully merits. These spells are uncommon in the sport and ought to be celebrated.
